By Thomas Madison

I love ISW (! Their polling is real-time, it is accurate, and it is completely unbiased, with a larger survey sample than any other polling organization in the industry that I know of.

In this particular ISW poll, over 5 million respondents were surveyed and asked the question, “If the Presidential election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?”

As of 11 AM CST, April 4, 2016, the ISW polling is as follows:

26% Bernie
23% Donald Trump
14% Hillary Clinton
11% Ted Cruz
8% John Kasich
8% Marco Rubio
5% Ben Carson
3% Rand Paul
1% Jeb Bush

The reason I am declaring this a two-man race at this point is because of the trajectory of the respective candidates. Sanders and Trump clearly have a superior upward trajectory over the past couple of weeks.

According to ISW’s awesome graphic, which presents a clear picture of each candidate’s trajectory over the past year, on March 15, 2016, The Bern registered at 26%, The Donald at 21%, a difference of 5 percentage points. The difference today is 3 percentage points, the recent trajectory clearly favoring Trump.

Other noteworthy details of the ISW poll graphic….

  1. Canadian Cruz’s trajectory is flat, gaining only 1/2 of one percentage point since March 15, currently polling at an anemic 11%.
  2. Hitlery’s flight path trajectory can best be described as a slow descent into obscurity. In a year the Wicked Witch of Benghazi has dropped from 41% to 14%. Her closest competitor a year ago was Canadian Cruz, who polled at 14%. The Canadian is now at 11%.
  3. John Kasich enjoys an upward trajectory of 2% since March 15. However, at 8% he is so far behind he is really an afterthought.
  4. There are four Republican candidates no longer in the race who are still registering votes. There are a total of 17 percentage points being shared by those four former candidates. As they become even less relevant, the votes they would have gotten will likely be split betweeen Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the lion’s share going to Trump first, Kasich second, if the current trend continues, which is expected. This should put Trump even with, or possibly ahead of Sanders in the near future.
  5. As you study the graphic, the little blossoms that appear at the end of each candidate’s trajectory are real-time votes being registered.