By Thomas Madison
The Iowa caucus is the first presidential primary, but it also has little impact in the grand scheme of things. Sure, there are bragging rights for Cruz, but he acts as though he just threw a no-hitter for the Yankees. He makes another YUGE blunder every day. Here is a list of reasons why Iowa is relatively insignificant in the big picture….
- Cruz garnered a grand total of 8 delegates in what he is considering his Super Bowl win. The Donald garnered 7. BFD!
- Cruz has been concentrating on Iowa almost exclusively at the the expense of other key states. In the other early primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, The Donald leads by 22, 16, and 21 points, respectively (RCP). Cruz should enjoy his 1-delegate lead while he can. It will disappear in less than a week in New Hampshire.
- Iowa is a closed primary state, which means that voters must vote with the party they are registered to. Only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican caucus, which means Democrats can’t vote for Trump in the caucus. This is why that is important – Trump’s greatest demographic support comes not from Republicans, but from disgruntled Democrats. He also enjoys a ton of support from independents, who, likewise, are not allowed to vote in the Iowa GOP caucus. Were Iowa an open primary state, where caucus attendees can cross over and vote freely, Trump would have dominated.
- Unlike the state primaries, the general election is wide open. Democrats and independents may vote for a Republican candidate if they so choose. According to Mercury Analytics, nearly 20% of likely Democrat voters will cross over to vote for Donald Trump. Even more independent voters are reported to be aboard the Trump Train.
While Ted Cruz put all of his eggs in the Iowa basket, hoping that would catapult him to the nomination, The Donald has been jetting around the country, meeting with and impressing YUGE crowds of followers everywhere. which has resulted in big dividends in the form of poll numbers, and ultimately votes.
A very interesting thing about this race and the way it is shaping up is that the battleground states, like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida will not be the keys this time around. The really important battleground state will be New York, Trump’s home state, where he is loved dearly. If Trump takes New York, and he will, it is over. I know it ain’t over ’til it’s over, but the handwriting is on the wall, the die is cast, and the fat lady is booking a room in Cleveland for July 18-21.
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