By Thomas Madison
If you can’t win the primary in your home state, what good do you think you will have in the general election? None! Such is the case with Marco Rubio, who is being soundly whipped by Donald Trump in the most recent Florida RCP polling. Trump enjoys a very comfortable 20-point advantage in the Sunshine State, where he leads Rubio 40% to 20%. Canadian Cruz is lagging in third place.
The problem with Florida for the second tier candidates, Rubio and Cruz, is that it is a winner-take-all state, offering 99 delegates, which will belong to Donald Trump come March 15 if the polling is even close to accurate. That will give The Donald a practically insurmountable lead, should he perform as polls indicate on Super Tuesday, just three days away.
Another delegate-rich state is now moving in the direction of Donald Trump, and it is also the home state of one of the candidates. Trump is now rising in the latest Texas polling, while Canadian Cruz is dropping. They are now tied in the Lone Star state at 32% each. Texas holds its primary on Super Tuesday, offering 155 delegates which will be divvied out proportionate to the voting.
A surprising phenomenon is occurring in the 2016 GOP presidential primary season. Donald Trump is changing the shape of the electorate. He is drawing in many first time primary voters. This is significant as most pundits interpret the meaning to be Donald Trump is being underestimated in the polling, as most polling organizations work from a call list of previous primary participants, the first-time voters not being accounted for or even identified at this point.
This could be very good news for Donald Trump. However, as it stands now, Texas looks like a toss-up between Trump and Cruz, meaning they will likely split the lion’s share of the available delegates. Trump, however, leads in most of the other Super Tuesday states, which should give him a very comfortable delegate lead going into Florida, where the expected outcome will give The Donald a delegate lead that will be virtually impossible for Cruz or Rubio to catch up to. The current delegate tally is 81 delegates for Trump, 17 each for Rubio and Cruz.
Many Texans who were former Cruz supporters believe that the Canadian has shown his true colors in the past month or two, and they don’t like it! Most of those former Cruz supporters are boarding the Trump Train.