By Thomas Madison
Just after Super Tuesday, which now seems like forever ago, we predicted that Donald Trump would easily reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates by June 7. We charted the course by date, state, and predicted delegate allocation, based upon the most recent (at the time) polling data.
While there have been a few shameful surprises, like Colorado and North Dakota, our prediction is tracking nicely for The Donald to go into the nominating convention with the requisite number of delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot.
Trump currently has 845 delegates. He needs 392 to secure the nomination outright on the first ballot. There are 733 delegates still available. The Donald needs 53% of the remaining delegates to go into the convention with the number required to win on the first ballot.
In the first graphic, below, is the latest polling data for the five states holding primaries this coming Tuesday. Obviously, Trump is predicted to have a yuge day. The second graphic shows the latest polling data for delegate-rich California, where there are 172 delegates available, and where The Donald has more than double the support of the The Canadian.
Following are the remaining primaries and the results we originally predicted. We have Trump accumulating another 449 delegates, going into convention with 1,294, a whisker-thin margin of less than 5% over the magic number of 1,237, so there can be no hiccups. On the other hand, we were intentionally conservative in our numbers, so the actual finish could be a bit more in The Donald’s favor. That’s our prediction and we’re sticking to it!
April 26
Connecticut (28 delegates) – Trump leads by 33. I give Trump 20
Delaware (16 delegates) – Trump leads by 30. I give Trump 13
Maryland (38 delegates) – Trump leads by 23. I give Trump 27
Pennsylvania (71 delegates) – Trump leads by 28. I give Trump 48
Rhode Island (19 delegates) – Trump leads by 35. I give Trump 14
May 3
Indiana (57 delegates) – Trump leads by 18. I give Trump 38
May 10
Nebraska (36 delegates) – Trump leads by 13. I give Trump 25
W. Virginia (34 delegates) – Trump leads by 30. I give Trump 25
May 17
Oregon (28 delegates) – Trump leads by 17. I give Trump 20
May 24
Washington (44 delegates) – Trump leads by 16. I give Trump 28
June 7
California (172 delegates) – Trump leads by 22. I give Trump 100
Montana (27 delegates) – Trump leads by 14. I give Trump 20
New Jersey (51 delegates) – Trump leads by 34. I give Trump 37
New Mexico (24 delegates) – Trump leads by 13. I give Trump 16
S. Dakota (29 delegates) – Trump leads by 10. I give Trump 18
