By Thomas Madison
Notwithstanding the shady primary results in Wisconsin, which I believe should be challenged and a recall scheduled, Donald Trump is still in a solid position to reach the magic number of 1,237 delegates before the nominating convention.
Trump’s new top political strategist, Paul Manafort, agrees with Powdered Wig’s prediction that The Donald will reach 1,237 delegates by June 7, and likely ON June 7, when the last five primary states hold their GOP elections. There are 303 delegates up for grabs on that day in the following states, with our predicted delegate breakdown, which we believe to be conservative:
California (172 delegates) – Trump leads by 22. I give Trump 100
Montana (27 delegates) – Trump leads by 14. I give Trump 20
New Jersey (51 delegates) – Trump leads by 34. I give Trump 37
New Mexico (24 delegates) – Trump leads by 13. I give Trump 16
S. Dakota (29 delegates) – Trump leads by 10. I give Trump 18
Trump should make up for the shortfall in Wisconsin on April 19, when his home state of New York holds its primary. There are 95 delegates at stake in New York. Trump should take nearly all, if not all, of those delegates. He leads in New York in RCP’s most recent polling by 34 points, 54% to Cruz’s 20%.
The only factor we are unable to predict is voter fraud and voting machine tampering, which has been highly suspect in several states, including most recently Wisconsin, where Cruz won by 13 points. Donald Trump swept nearly all of the rural precincts, while Cruz won in the urban precincts. It is beyond mysterious that a self-proclaimed ultra-right wing evangelical Christian would dominate in left wing, secular urban precincts. It should also be noted that voter fraud almost always occurs in urban areas. Discounting voter fraud, Trump will make it to 1,237 delegates on June 7.
Is voter fraud and voting machine tampering a legitimate concern? This is how easy it is to hack modern electronic voting machines…. voting machine hacking.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s new top political strategist predicted on Friday the Republican presidential front-runner would amass the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch his party’s nomination well before the Republican National Convention in July.
Veteran campaign tactician Paul Manafort was chosen by Trump on Thursday to oversee a fractious nomination process that many Republicans expect may not yield a clear winner before the convention.
Manafort said on CNN’s “New Day” program that rival Ted Cruz, the U.S. senator from Texas, will not be able to dent Trump’s delegate lead before California’s June 7 primary.
“The reality is: Ted Cruz has seen his best day,” Manafort said. “The reality is: this convention process will be over with sometime in June, probably June 7, and it’ll be apparent to the world that Trump is over that 1,237 number.”
Trump has been uncharacteristically quiet on social media after his double-digit loss to Cruz in the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday, which followed a series of missteps on the campaign trail including his statement, later recanted, advocating punishment for women who have illegal abortions.
In elevating Manafort, Trump said he would add more staff before the convention in an expansion of his campaign team beyond the close-knit group of advisers who have been at his side since he jumped into the presidential race last June.
“People that I know that want to get involved and wanted to before but didn’t have a way in,” Manafort said.
The next presidential nominating contests before the Nov. 8 election include a number in East Coast states seen as more fertile ground for the real estate tycoon, including in his native New York on April 19.
Manafort cited Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maryland as states where Trump would do well.
“By the time we get to California the momentum is going be very clear and Ted Cruz’ path to victory is going to be in shambles,” he said.
Cruz, appearing on the CNN program earlier, said he had a clear path to 1,237 delegates.
“It’s difficult. We’ve got to win and we’ve got to win consistently,” Cruz said. “He’s right. He has to win,” Manafort said.