By Shane Trejo
While the so-called experts call for a longer and longer societal lock down, financial analysts are warning that emergency measures to stop the coronavirus pandemic are likely to result in the worst economic damage in nearly a century.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted on Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic will result in the worst recession since the Great Depression, even surpassing the economic turmoil of the late 2000s. They expect a contraction of the world economy by 3 percent whereas the economy only contracted 0.7 percent in 2009.
“The Great Lockdown, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically,” said IMF economic counselor Gita Gopinath in the fund’s 2020 World Economic Outlook. “Much worse growth outcomes are possible and maybe even likely.”
If the virus subsides over the second half of the year, the IMF expects economic growth to pick back up. They anticipate 5.8 percent growth in 2021 as a projected recovery takes hold aided by stimulus funds and money printing. This is only speculation, as certain experts predict that the coronavirus shut down could last many months. The IMF notes the “extreme uncertainty” of the situation while making their predictions.
“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital flow reversals, and a collapse in commodity prices,” the fund’s outlook states. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”
Big League Politics has reported on the economic carnage caused by the coronavirus pandemic:
The coronavirus pandemic and mass hysteria that has followed it will have a long-lasting negative impact on the food service industry, according to a recent study.
A survey from the National Restaurant Association (NRA) of over 4,000 restaurant owners has indicated that 11 percent of restaurant owners believe they will have to close up shop permanently with three percent saying they have already closed their doors for good. These calculations extrapolated across the entire industry mean that over 110,000 restaurants will be forced to close forever within a month.
In the first 22 days of March, restaurants lost an estimated $25 billion in sales and over three million jobs because of coronavirus-related economic peril. The consumption-based economy has evaporated immediately, and the ramifications could be dire.
Roger Lipton, a restaurant industry investor and commentator, is calling this the “restaurant apocalypse” and sees the business heading into uncharted territory where the damages could be unlike anything that has happened in the industry before.
Every economic sector is being negatively affected by coronavirus. President Trump said that the cure cannot be worse than the disease, but that will certainly be the case if a depression is on the way.
Shane writes for Big League Politics